Günther Fischer, Mahendra Shah, Harrij van Velthuizen
    and Freddy O. Nachtergaele
Land Use Change (LUC) project
Full text of report (PDF, 44 pages)
Copyright © 2001 FAO and IIASA

In the coming decades of this millennium, the world community of nations will face an enormous challenge concerning food security, environmental conservation, and preservation of genetic resources.

The need for food for an increasing population often threatens natural resources as people strive to get the most out of land already in production or push into virgin territory for new agricultural land. The damage is increasingly evident: arable lands lost to erosion, salinity, desertification, and urban spread; water shortages; disappearing forests; and threats to biodiversity. The situation is likely to be further worsened by the potential impacts of global warming and climate change on growing conditions. Hence, in a world of interdependence, interpenetration, and reciprocity,

sustainable agricultural development
is not just an option — it is an imperative.

Abstract
This report presents a summary of the methodogy and results and a comprehensive global assessment of the world’s agricultural ecology. The national-level information with global coverage enables knowledge-based decisions for sustainable agricultural development. The Agro-ecological Zones approach is a GIS-based modeling framework that combines land evaluation methods with socioeconomic and multiple-criteria analysis to evaluate spatial and dynamic aspects of agriculture.
    The results of the Global AEZ assessment are estimated by grid cell and aggregated to national, regional, and global levels. They include identification of areas with specific climate, soil, and terrain constraints to crop production; estimation of the extent and productivity of rain-fed and irrigated cultivable land and potential for expansion; quantification of cultivation potential of land currently in forest ecosystems; and impacts of climate change on food production, geographical shifts of cultivable land, and implications for food security.

Key findings

	More than three-quarters of the global land surface is unsuitable for crop cultivation, suffering severe constraints of being too cold (13%), too dry (27%), or too steep (12%), or having poor soils (40%). Also, multiple constraints occur in some locations.
	Cultivable land in developing countries totals about 1.8 billion hectares (ha), of which some 20% is only moderately suitable for crop cultivation. At present, over 900 million ha of this land is under cultivation. The corresponding figures for the developed countries are 765 million ha of cultivable land, 35% of which is only moderately suitable, and 595 million ha under cultivation at present.
	Over 80% of potentially cultivable land reserves are located in just two regions, South America and sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, most of the cultivable land in Asia is already in use, and the population increase expected by 2050 will reduce per capita availability of cultivable land to below the critical level of 0.1 ha per person.
	In both the developed and developing worlds, some 1.4 billion ha constitute forest ecosystems, of which 12% and 30%, respectively, have good potential for crop cultivation. However, cultivation in these forest areas would result in severe environmental consequences.
	Intensification of agriculture will be the most likely means to meet food needs for a world population of some nine billion people in 2050. The study asserts that enough food can be produced on currently cultivated land if sustainable management and adequate inputs are applied. However, this will require substantial improvements of socioeconomic conditions in many developing countries to enable access to inputs and technology.
	The projected climate change will result in mixed and geographically varying impacts on crop production. Developed countries substantially gain production potential, while many developing countries lose. In some 40 poor developing countries with a combined current population of 2 billion, including 450 million undernourished people, production losses due to climate change may drastically increase the number of undernourished, severely hindering progress against poverty and food insecurity.

Full text (In Adobe PDF format, 44 pages)

To order a paper copy, please contact the IIASA Publications Department.

For further information on IIASA's Land Use Change (LUC) project, see the LUC web site or contact lucinfo@iiasa.ac.at.

Responsible for this page: IIASA web support
Last updated: 10 Jun 2002