The population of the European Union reaches 500 million

Laxenburg, Austria – 22 July 2010.

The population of the European Union (EU) has reached 500 million and is projected to reach 528 million by 2030, according to a new study published today. The increase will be driven primarily by migration into the EU from non-member EU states.

Projected change in total population size from 2010 to 2030 (in percent)

The 500 million mark was reached in the present day EU of 27 countries (excluding French overseas territories) in the first part of 2010, and is due in large part to a net-migration gain, between 2004 and 2007, from countries outside the EU. National differentials in migration patterns over the past two decades also explain the growth in the population of Western Europe while the Eastern states have declined in population size.

This trend is expected to continue in coming decades with a combination of fertility, mortality, and migration resulting in population decline in Eastern Europe and growth in Western Europe.

The findings are published in the new European Demographic Data Sheet produced by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences.

According to the study leader Dr Sergei Scherbov, from IIASA and the VID, uncertainties about the exact time the EU reached the 500 million mark is due to uncertainties in the migration data. “Due to the economic crisis net-migration in many countries declined and projections based on previous levels are, in all likelihood, a little high. We will have a more accurate picture when the next census is complete in 2012.”

“Changes to the population base of the EU have occurred primarily due to the accession of new member states to the EU,” explains Professor Wolfgang Lutz, a co-author of the study and 2010 Austro Nobel prize winner.  “Since the start of the post-war migration process in Europe the population has tripled from 160 million to 500 million, however the original 6 members states of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands account for only 218 million people in 2009.”

“The EU-27 currently comprises 7.3 percent of the global population of 6.9 billion and this share is also expected to decline to around 5.7% by 2060 if there are no further accessions.”

The data sheet, which is published every two years, combines standard demographic indicators for all European countries with some more innovative indicators, such as the proportion of each population that has a remaining life expectancy of 15 years or less—an alternative view of population aging based on expected time to death rather than the conventional time since birth. The data sheet also estimates fertility rates based on the “quantum” of fertility (mean number of children per woman), a more sophisticated approach than the conventional total fertility rates.

The study also projects that the total population of all European countries (including Turkey, Russia and the Caucasus), which is currently just over 800 million, is expected to decline to 700 million by 2050. This will see Europe’s total share of world population decrease from the current 12 percent to around 8 percent by the 2050.

While the projections provide a valuable indication of population change over time, the authors also highlight the uncertainties associated with population projections and the volatility of migration flows, particularly during periods of extreme economic instability. The projections provide a valuable indication of how the population is likely to change, important information for governments and communities to assist future planning.

Population growth in the EU and its predecessor as compared with the USA, 1952-2010	Probabilistic projection of the population of Europe to 2100 (all 48 countries)	Probabilistic projection of the share of the population of Europe (all 48 countries) in the total world population to 2100

Reference: European Demographic Data sheet 2010 – IIASA and the Vienna Institute of Demography of the Austrian Academy of Sciences (July 2010). Team: Lutz, W. Mamolo, M., Scherbov, S., Sobotka, T. & Zeman K.

Key spokesperson
Dr Sergei Scherbov: Research Scholar, IIASA and Research Leader Population Dynamics and Forecasting Group VID +43 2236/807584 or +43 (1) 515 81/7707 Email: scherbov@iiasa.ac.at,  sergei.scherbov@oeaw.ac.at

Professor Wolfgang Lutz: Program Leader IIASA, Director - VID, and Professor - Vienna University of Economics and Business

More information or interviews contact:
Leane Regan, IIASA  Tel: +43 2236 807 316, Mob: +43(0)664 443 0368  Email: regan@iiasa.ac.at
Ani Minassian, VID Tel: +43 (1) 515 81 7718 Email: ani.minassian@oeaw.ac.at

About IIASA:
IIASA is an international scientific institute that conducts research into the critical issues of global environmental, economic, technological, and social change that we face in the twenty-first century. Our findings provide valuable options to policy makers to shape the future of our changing world.

IIASA is independent and funded by scientific institutions in Africa, the Americas, Asia and Europe. www.iiasa.ac.at

About the Vienna Institute of Demography:
The Vienna Institute of Demography strives for the combination of scientific excellence with proactive relevance in analysing and projecting demographic trends and in evaluating the social and economic consequences of population ageing. Thus the VID combines innovative methodological work with empirical analysis and communication of scientifically based insights. It gives special attention to the demography of Austria and to European comparative analysis. The Institute is embedded in the structure of the Austrian Academy of Sciences. http://www.oeaw.ac.at/vid/

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Last updated: 22 Jul 2010