"Absolutely vital" need for international financial assistance to least developed countries in next two decades

Laxenburg, Austria/Cape Town, South Africa – 4 January 2010. International assistance to finance adaptation by least developed countries to climate-related extreme events is urgently needed, beginning now and continuing for the next two decades. This is the main finding from a ground-breaking study conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the University of Cape Town, and six other scientific partner organizations in Africa, Europe, and the United States that is due to be published online today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The study, "Estimating least developed countries’ vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years," is the first-ever analysis that takes losses from extreme weather events as an indicator of a state's overall vulnerability and considers how vulnerability will be affected by both socio-economic development and climate change. This new research indicates that, in the second quarter of this century, the effects of socio-economic development trends may begin to offset rising climate exposure. Thus, it is between now and 2030 that vulnerability will rise most quickly, likely resulting in large-scale impacts on human development and the environment, should adequate and expedient financial support not be made available.

While past research has provided rough estimates of the scale of financial assistance needed across the adaptation spectrum (from $US9 billion to over $100 billion annually), these studies have not resolved whether such assistance is required immediately, or whether the need will “ramp up” over the coming decades, as climate change becomes more severe. According to IIASA's Anthony Patt, "Current bilateral and multilateral adaptation support appears to be several orders of magnitude below assessed needs and the various mechanisms proposed for scaling up international financial adaptation assistance are unlikely to cover this gap in the coming years." Thus scientists and policymakers need to determine whether the slow pace of adaptation funding presents a major problem.

The IIASA-led study employed innovative modeling techniques to reach its conclusions. Using an empirically derived model of human losses to climate-related extreme events as an indicator of vulnerability and the need for adaptation assistance, the research team developed a set of 50-year scenarios for those losses in a least developed country with high climate exposure—Mozambique—using high resolution climate scenarios which were compared with historical data for both climate and extreme event occurrence. A coarser analysis was then conducted to generalize the qualitative results from the Mozambique case study to a sample of 23 least developed countries. 

The results suggest that vulnerability, and likely with it the need for international financial assistance for adaptation, will rise faster in the next two decades than it will in the three decades thereafter, making the requirement for financial assistance in Patt's words, "absolutely vital" to avoid or mitigate human and environmental catastrophes.

The full report, A.G. Patt et al., "Estimating least developed countries' vulnerability to climate-related extreme events over the next 50 years," published by PNAS, is online as of 4 January 2010.

Press release in French.

Further Information contact:
Anthony Patt
IIASA, Risk and Vulnerability Program
Tel.: +43 664 438 9330
E-mail: patt@iiasa.ac.at

Iain Stewart
IIASA, Communications Department
Tel.: +43 2236 807 433
E-mail: stewart@iiasa.ac.at

Author affiliations:

• Anthony G. Patt, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria;
• Mark Tadross, Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa;
• Patrick Nussbaumer,  Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Spain;  
• Kwabena Asante, Climatus LLC, Mountain View, California, United States;  
• Marc Metzger, Centre for the Study of Environmental Change and Sustainability of the University of Edinburgh, Scotland, and Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, The Netherlands;
• José Rafael, Department of Geography, University of Eduardo Mondlane, Maputo, Mozambique;  
• Anne Goujon, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria and  Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria; and
• Geoff Brundrit, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, South Africa.

About IIASA:
IIASA is an independent, interdisciplinary research institution, which specializes in natural and social scientific research methods and models valued by policy makers and the scientific community worldwide. IIASA is an international institution, with member organizations in 17 countries.

About the University of Cape Town:
The University of Cape Town (UCT) is South Africa's oldest university. Founded in 1829, UCT is currently one of the leading higher education institutions on the African continent and has a tradition of academic excellence that is respected worldwide. It is privileged to have on its staff more than one third of South Africa's A-rated researchers and academics - all of whom are recognised as world leaders in their field. The university is a vibrant academic community of some 22 000 students and 4 500 members of staff. It has a diverse and student body which reflects the many cultures and backgrounds of the region. It is also home to over 3 000 international students from over 100 countries.

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Last updated: 02 Jul 2010