The
Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Change Mitigation:
Long-term
Scenarios for the 21st Century
Abstract:
The non-CO2 greenhouse gases have so far jointly contributed around 40
percent to overall global warming. In this paper we examine the role
of these gases in meeting long-term climate change targets. For this
purpose, we develop mitigation scenarios aimed at achieving long-term
stabilization of global radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 as compared to
pre-industrial times. A number of cheap mitigation options exist for
these gases. We use the MESSAGE model for a thorough bottom-up representation
of the various greenhouse gases and the corresponding mitigation technologies.
This approach endogenizes energy feedback effects from mitigation of
non-CO2 gases and accounts for the interactions and side benefits
across GHGs. We analyze two mitigation scenarios - one allowing
only for CO2 mitigation and another with multigas mitigation. By doing
so, we identify a portfolio of measures in the energy, industry and agricultural
sectors for achieving the proposed forcing target. We find that considering
the full basket of GHGs improves the effectiveness of the mitigation
portfolio and results in significantly lower costs. This effect
is seen to be more pronounced in the short term, since in the long run,
the bulk
of the emissions reductions in the multigas scenario reductions still
come from CO2.
Rao,
S., Riahi,
K., 2005: The role of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in climate change
mitigation: Long-term scenarios for the 21st century. Energy
Draft paper as
submitted to Energy
Presentation
given at Stanford University, December 2003.
Appendix available here 
Dr.
Keywan Riahi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1,
A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Tel: +43 (2236) 807 491
Fax: +43 (2236) 71 313
E-mail: riahi@iiasa.ac.at
Web: www.iiasa.ac.at/~riahi/Multigas_Mitigation/
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